A Real Climate Assessment

• http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index
• http://www.realclimate.org

Index

In addition to the category indexing on the side bar, we have set out a more thematic index here to help you find your way through the content on the site.

Themes: Aerosols, Arctic and Antarctic climate, Atmospheric Science, Climate modelling, Climate sensitivity, Extreme events, Global warming, Greenhouse gases, Mitigation of Climate Change, Present-day observations, Oceans, Paleo-climate, Responses to common contrarian arguments, The Practice of Science, Solar forcing, Projections of future climate, Climate in the media, Meeting Reports, Miscellaneous.

If you are looking for introductions to the whole topic, start here.

Aerosols:

• Global Dimming? () ()
• Global Dimming II () ()
• Pollution-Climate Connections () ()
• Global Dimming may have a brighter future () ()
• Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings
• An Aerosol Tour de Forcing
• Global Dimming and climate models
• Current volcanic activity and climate?
• Aerosols: The Last Frontier? () ()
• Ozone impacts on climate change
• Perspectives from China
• Global dimming and global warming
• Aerosols, Chemistry and Climate

Arctic and Antarctic climate:

• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment II
• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment III
• Will spring 2005 be a bad one for Arctic ozone? () ()
• 2005 Record Arctic Ozone Loss
• Retreating Glacier Fronts on the Antarctic Peninsula over the Past Half-Century () ()
• 650,000 years of greenhouse gas concentrations () ()
• Polar Amplification
• The Greenland Ice
• How much future sea level rise? More evidence from models and ice sheet observations.
• Significant Warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere
• More on the Arctic
• Sea level in the Arctic
• Ice Sheets and Sea Level Rise: Model Failure is the Key Issue
• The Copenhagen Consensus
• Is Antarctic climate changing?
• Historical climatology in Greenland
• Not just ice albedo () ()
• Arctic Sea Ice decline in the 21st Century () ()
• Making sense of Greenland’s ice
• Arctic sea ice watch
• New rule for high profile papers
• ¿La Antártida está fría? Si, ya lo sabíamos ()
• Sifones, frentes glaciares y la aceleración de los glaciares exteriores de Groenlandia ()
• North Pole notes
• Ice Shelf Instability
• North Pole notes (continued)
• ¿Cuanto subirá el nivel del mar? () ()
• On straw men and Greenland: Tad Pfeffer Responds
• What links the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbrae, Wilkins Ice Shelf and the Petermann Glacier?

Atmospheric Science:

• Water vapour: feedback or forcing? () ()
• Et Tu LT?
• The tropical lapse rate quandary
• Busy Week for Water Vapor
• More satellite stuff
• Naturally trendy?
• Cloudy outlook for albedo?
• On a Weakening of the Walker Circulation
• The sky IS falling () ()
• On Mid-latitude Storms
• Uncertainty in polar ozone depletion?
• Tropical tropospheric trends
• Butterflies, tornadoes and climate modelling
• Tropical tropospheric trends again
• Tropical tropospheric trends again (again) () ()
• Ozone holes and cosmic rays () ()

Climate modelling:

• Is Climate Modelling Science? () ()
• Planetary energy imbalance?
• Modeller vs. modeller
• Chaos and Climate
• Greenhouse gases help seasonal predictions () ()
• Polar Amplification
• Climate Feedbacks
• Short and simple arguments for why climate can be predicted
• The Physics of Climate Modelling () ()
• Hansen’s 1988 projections
• Why global climate models do not give a realistic description of the local climate () ()
• Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast
• Musings about models
• The IPCC model simulation archive
• “Hell train station”
• Lo que dicen realmente los modelos del IPCC () ()
• Enfriamiento Global, ¿Quieres apostar? () () ()
• Apuesta al Enfriamiento Global – Segunda Parte () () ()
• Hypothesis testing and long range memory
• FAQ on climate models () ()

Climate sensitivity:

• 11ºC warming, climate crisis in 10 years? () ()
• Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcings
• Natural Variability and Climate Sensitivity
• Richard Lindzen’s HoL testimony
• Climate sensitivity: Plus ça change…
• Runaway tipping points of no return () ()
• Climate Feedbacks
• The CO₂ problem in 6 easy steps
• Climate Insensitivity
• The certainty of uncertainty
• Objectivo CO₂ ()
• Simple Question, Simple Answer… Not () () () () ()

Extreme events:

• Storms and Climate Change
• Storms & Global Warming II
• Huracanes y calentamiento global ¿Hay conexión? () ()
• On record-breaking events
• Reactions to tighter hurricane intensity/SST link
• Tropical Cyclones workshop
• Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming
• NOAA: Hurricane forecasts
• Amazonian drought () ()
• Fact, Fiction, and Friction in the Hurricane Debate
• Tropical SSTs: Natural variations or Global warming?
• On Mid-latitude Storms
• El Nino, Global Warming, and Anomalous U.S. Winter Warmth () () ()
• Hurricane Spin
• Storm World: A Review
• Tropical cyclone history – part I: How reliable are past hurricane records?
• Tropical cyclone history – part II: Paleotempestology still in its infancy
• Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones (Yet Again)

Global warming:

• Imprecision of the Phrase “Global Warming”
• Anomalous Recent Warmth in Europe () ()
• Global temperatures continue to rise () ()
• Update on 2005 temperatures () ()
• 2005 temperatures () ()
• Global warming on Mars? () ()
• Ozone depletion and global warming () () ()
• How long will global warming last? () ()
• Betting on climate change
• Worldwide glacier retreat () ()
• Why looking for global warming in the oceans is a good idea () ()
• Planetary energy imbalance?
• Tropical Glacier Retreat
• Global warming on Earth () ()
• Q & A: Global Warming
• Methane hydrates and global warming
• Can 2°C warming be avoided? () ()
• Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming
• El Niño and Global Warming
• Geo-engineering in vogue…
• ‘The Discovery of Global Warming’ update
• Attribution of 20th Century climate change to CO₂ () ()
• How much CO₂ emission is too much? () ()
• No man is an (Urban Heat) Island
• 1934 and all that
• Friday roundup
• Six Degrees

Greenhouse gases:

• What does the lag of CO₂ behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming? () ()
• How do we know that recent CO₂ increases are due to human activities? () () ()
• CO₂ Fertilization
• Water vapour: feedback or forcing? () ()
• The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission
• Busy Week for Water Vapor
• 650,000 years of greenhouse gas concentrations () ()
• Methane hydrates and global warming
• Calculating the greenhouse effect
• Methane hydrates and global warming
• Scientists baffled! () ()
• Kristof on the Apocalypse
• Positive feedbacks from the carbon cycle
• Buying a stairway to heaven?
• Rasslin’ swamp gas
• How much CO₂ emission is too much? () ()
• The sky IS falling () ()
• Learning from a simple model
• The lag between temperature and CO₂. (Gore’s got it right.) () ()
• Beck to the future
• Thin Soup and a Thin Story () () ()
• Part II: What Ångström didn’t know
• A Saturated Gassy Argument () ()
• The CO₂ problem in 6 easy steps
• My model, used for deception
• CO2 equivalents
• ¿Está desapareciendo el sumidero de carbono oceánico? ()
• Hot off the projector #3: Atmospheric CO₂ to 800 kyr ago
• Venus Unveiled
• El CO2 no es el único gas de efecto invernadero, y el efecto invernadero no es el único problema del CO2 ()

Mitigation of Climate Change:

• Geo-engineering in vogue…
• Captura de Aire ()
• Climate change methadone?
• La confusión de las millas por galón () ()
• Tropical tropospheric trends again (again) () ()

Oceans:

• Gulf Stream slowdown? () ()
• Saltier or not? () ()
• Decrease in Atlantic circulation? () ()
• The Acid Ocean – the Other Problem with CO2 Emission
• Atlantic circulation change summary () ()
• El Niño and Global Warming
• Ocean heat content: latest numbers
• Why greenhouse gases heat the ocean
• Tropical SSTs: Natural variations or Global warming?
• Carl Wunsch, The Economist and the Gulf Stream
• Ocean Circulation: New evidence (Yes), slowdown (No)
• Revealed: Secrets of Abrupt Climate Shifts
• A Linkage Between the LIA and Gulf Stream?
• The IPCC sea level numbers () ()
• Ocean Cooling. Not. () () ()
• Thin Soup and a Thin Story () () ()
• Who ya gonna call?
• Of buckets and blogs
• Ocean heat content revisions

Paleo-climate:

• Temperature Variations in Past Centuries and the so-called "Hockey Stick" () ()
• False Claims by McIntyre and McKitrick regarding the Mann et al. (1998) reconstruction
• Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick" ()
• Weren’t temperatures warmer than today during the “Medieval Warm Period”? () ()
• OK, But we do know it was warmer than present 6000 years ago, don’t we? () ()
• On Yet Another False Claim by McIntyre and McKitrick
• What If … the “Hockey Stick” Were Wrong? () ()
• Dummies guide to the latest “Hockey Stick” controversy () ()
• Moberg et al: Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures? () ()
• “New Analysis Reproduces Graph of Late 20th Century Temperature Rise”
• Hockey sticks: Round 27
• Debate over the Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis
• A New Take on an Old Millennium
• Sir Nicholas Shackleton
• A Mistake with Repercussions
• Art and climate
• Addendum to “A Mistake with Repercussions”
• How Red are my Proxies?
• National Academies Synthesis Report
• Medieval warmth and English wine
• The missing piece at the Wegman hearing
• Followup to the ‘Hockeystick’ Hearings
• Revealed: Secrets of Abrupt Climate Shifts
• Broadly Misleading
• A Linkage Between the LIA and Gulf Stream?
• When the mites go up…
• What triggers ice ages? () () () ()
• Cold Case vs. CSI () ()
• The lag between temperature and CO₂. (Gore’s got it right.) () ()
• The weirdest millennium
• Curve manipulation: lesson 2
• Younger Dry-as dust?
• Past reconstructions: problems, pitfalls and progress
• The debate is just beginning — on the Cretaceous!
• Tropical cyclone history – part I: How reliable are past hurricane records?
• Tropical cyclone history – part II: Paleotempestology still in its infancy
• 530 AD y todo eso () ()
• Progresos en reconstruir el clima en los últimos milenios ()

Present-day observations:

• Et Tu LT?
• The tropical lapse rate quandary
• Gulf Stream slowdown? () ()
• What is a first-order climate forcing?
• The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island
• Groundhog Day
• Cloudy outlook for albedo?
• More on the Arctic
• Historical climatology in Greenland
• Has Pacific Northwest snowpack declined? Yes.
• Glacier Mass Balance: equilibrium or disequilibrium response?
• No man is an (Urban Heat) Island
• 1934 and all that
• Sweatin’ the Mediterranean Heat
• ¿Están las tendencias de la temperatura del aire afectadas por la actividad económica? ()
• A barrier to understanding?
• Incertidumbre, ruido y el arte de comparar datos y modelos () ()
• Model-data-comparison, Lesson 2
• Tendencias globales y ENSO ()
• Mind the Gap! () ()
• Mucho ruido y pocas nueces ()
• 2008 temperature summaries and spin () ()

Projections of future climate:

• Climate model scenarios () ()
• Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate
• Lawson vs. the IPCC
• Can 2°C warming be avoided? () ()
• James Lovelock’s Gloomy Vision
• Kristof on the Apocalypse
• Stern Science () () ()
• Hansen’s 1988 projections
• Green and Armstrong’s scientific forecast
• Regional Climate Projections
• The Forecast in the Streets
• “Hell train station”

Responses to common contrarian arguments:

• Michaels misquotes Hansen
• Antarctic cooling, global warming? () ()
• What does the lag of CO₂ behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming? () ()
• Are Temperature Trends affected by Economic Activity?
• Fox News gets it wrong
• Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion () ()
• Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion II: Return of the Science
• Climate Change Disinformation
• Will-full ignorance
• George Will-misled and misleading
• The global cooling myth () ()
• Strange Bedfellows () ()
• Myth vs. Fact Regarding the "Hockey Stick" ()
• What If … the “Hockey Stick” Were Wrong? () ()
• Water vapour: feedback or forcing? () ()
• How much of the recent CO₂ increase is due to human activities? () ()
• Inhofe and Crichton: Together at Last!
• How to be a real sceptic
• El Wall Street Journal sobre el consenso científico en el cambio climático ()
• Senator Inhofe on Climate Change
• CO₂ Fertilization
• Calculating the greenhouse effect
• Good climate debate FAQ
• Bush on “The Fundamental Debate”
• Incurious George
• Heat Rising at the Washington Post
• Open Thread on Lindzen Op-Ed in WSJ
• Lindzen: point by point
• Thank you for emitting
• Global cooling, again
• Cuckoo Science () ()
• English vineyards again….
• Avery and Singer: Unstoppable hot air
• Inhofe’s last stand
• Swindled! () ()
• Swindled: Carl Wunsch responds () ()
• Does a Global Temperature Exist? () ()
• Lindzen in Newsweek
• The lag between temperature and CO₂. (Gore’s got it right.) () ()
• Beck to the future
• The weirdest millennium
• Curve manipulation: lesson 2
• Oregon Institute of Science and Malarkey
• BBC contrarian top 10
• Les Chevaliers de l'Ordre de la Terre Plate, Part I: Allègre and Courtillot () ()
• Les Chevaliers de l’Ordre de la Terre Plate, Part II: Courtillot's Geomagnetic Excursion () ()
• La excusa del enfriamiento global () ()
• Impressions from the European Geophysical Union conference 2008
• Freeman Dyson’s selective vision
• Once more unto the bray
• Not the IPCC (“NIPCC”) Report () ()

Scientific Practice:

• Statistical analysis of consensus () ()
• Just what is this Consensus anyway? () ()
• Exeter conference: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change () ()
• Is Climate Modelling Science? () ()
• IPCC in action: Part I
• IPCC in action: Part II
• Peer Review: A Necessary But Not Sufficient Condition () ()
• Peer Review: A Necessary But Not Sufficient Condition II
• Lawson vs. the IPCC
• How to be a real sceptic
• Hansen in the New York Times
• Happy Birthday, Charles Darwin!
• A Mistake with Repercussions
• How not to write a press release
• Communicating Science & Technology
• The Copenhagen Consensus
• Nature’s press advisories
• Chinese whispers in Australia
• AGU, AAPG and AMQUA
• Supreme Court Amicus Curiae from scientists
• Further comment on the Supreme Court briefs
• Fall AGU
• AGU Hangover
• El resumen para responsables de políticas del cuarto informe de evaluación del IPCC () () () ()
• Fraser Institute fires off a damp squib
• Ozone Hole Leaks and Other Tales () ()
• Full IPCC AR4 report now available
• Transparency of the IPCC process
• Perspectives from China
• Spanish perspectives
• What if you held a conference, and no (real) scientists came?
• Blogs y reseña de pares ()
• Bridging the divides
• Are geologists different?
• A new survey of scientists () ()
• Greenspan, Einstein and Reich () () ()
• Contrarians and consensus: The case of the midwife toad

Solar forcing:

• Recent Warming But No Trend in Galactic Cosmic Rays
• A critique on Veizer’s Celestial Climate Driver
• The lure of solar forcing
• Did the Sun hit record highs over the last few decades?
• Another study on solar influence
• The trouble with sunspots
• How not to attribute climate change
• Taking Cosmic Rays for a spin ()
• Nigel Calder in the Times
• ‘Cosmoclimatology’ – tired old arguments in new clothes () ()
• Cosmic rays don’t die so easily

Climate in the Media:

• The False Objectivity of “Balance”
• Getting the balance right…
• Al Gore’s movie () ()
• Disinformation? You want it, IREA’s got it
• Peter Doran and how misleading talking points propagate
• The missing repertoire
• Sachs’ WSJ Challenge
• Consensus as the New Heresy
• The Human Hand in Climate Change
• WSJ Editorial Board: Head Still Buried in the Sand () ()
• Climate Reporting in Physics World () ()
• Broad Irony
• A Tale of Three Interviews
• Cockburn’s form
• Global Warming Delusions at the Wall Street Journal
• A phenomenological sequel
• Find the error
• A day when Hell was frozen
• Wired Magazine’s Incoherent Truths
• More PR related confusion
• Journalistic whiplash ()
• Palin on Global Warming () ()
• Why don’t op-eds get fact checked?

Meeting Reports:

• Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #1
• Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #2
• Hot off the projector #3: Atmospheric CO₂ to 800 kyr ago
• Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #4
• Notes from The Gathering #5: Arctic sea ice: is it tipped yet?
• Live (almost) from AGU–Dispatch #6
• Rolling up the circus tent: Dispatch #7
• Impressions from the European Geophysical Union conference 2008
• Field notes from a Nature Conservancy meeting

Miscellaneous:

• Welcome to RealClimate () ()
• A disclaimer () ()
• RealClimate In the News
• Doubts about the Advent of Spring
• Scientists respond to Barton
• Framing of climate science
• Books books books
• One year on…
• Hansen in the New York Times
• Those pesky scientific facts…
• Meteors, Nuclear Tests and Global Warming
• Pielke père et fils in Nature
• Washington Post Cartoon
• IPCC draft: No comment.
• MY Review of Books
• Introducing RC forum
• It’s different in Europe
• The Copenhagen Consensus
• New public opinion poll on global warming
• New Google search function
• 2006 Year in review () ()
• Calling All Science Teachers
• Save the World! Earn $25 million! () () () ()
• Global Warming debate () ()
• Adventures on the East Side () ()
• The Sheep Albedo Feedback ()
• Fun with correlations! () ()
• A bit of philosophy
• G8 summit declaration
• Mentiras Convenientes () ()
• The “Have you stopped beating your wife yet (yes/no)” questionnaire
• Sustainability: A Nobel Cause
• Did we call it or what
• Books ’07
• Our Books
• Comprehensive climate glossary
• Books ’08
• 2008 Year in review